
Biography
Ying Bai is a Professor in the Department of Economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. He got his Ph.D. degree at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. His research interests encompass development economics, economic history, and political economy of China. Currently, he is examining China’s long-term economic backwardness using uniquely constructed data sets. Some of his recent works have appeared in Econometrica, the Journal of the European Economic Association, and the Review of Economics and Statistics.
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This paper examines the causal effect of political legitimacy on stability, using the historical case of Imperial China. Chinese rulers ascribed their legitimacy to a heavenly mandate. Calamities like earthquakes were considered to be a sign of weakened approval, making quakes a proxy for a negative legitimacy shock. I use quake-induced minor shaking (i.e., strong enough to be felt, but too weak to cause material damage) to demonstrate that legitimacy shocks cause more conflicts. I examine whether quakes serve as a coordination device to overcome collective action problems.