Rise of the south: How Arab-led maritime trade transformed China, 671–1371 CE

China’s center of socioeconomic activities was in the North prior to the Tang dynasty but is in the South today. Zhiwu Chen of HKU Business School and his co-authors demonstrate that Arab and Persian Muslim traders triggered that transition when they came to China in the late seventh century, by lifting maritime trade along the South Coast and re-creating the South. Between 742 and 1393 CE, prefectures with better access to maritime trade, or higher porcelain trade participation, experienced significantly higher population growth, but the predictive coefficient weakened substantially after the maritime trade ban of 1371 CE. In this Quantitative History Webinar, Zhiwu Chen will explain how their findings remain robust after controlling for many confounding factors.

Zhiwu Chen’s co-authors: Zhan Lin (Renmin University of China) and Kaixiang Peng (Wuhan University)

Discussant: Billy K. L. So, Professor Emeritus, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Fellow, Hong Kong Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences

The paper is available online as an early view before being included in a future issue.